Let me begin by saying that while we Hartford Colonials fans can comfort ourselves with the notion that our losses have generally been close ones, there comes a point where you have to wonder why these were not close wins. Cite all the flukes you want; Mehlhaff's missed extra point, the snap-fumble by Gray against Omaha, or the wind at Sammy Boyd, but the simple fact is this: if you want to win a championship, you can't leave yourself in a position where any of your games can be decided on a single play.
It's interesting to look at the statistics through week five . With the season half over and every team having been in four games, patterns are beginning to crystallize. Offensively, Hartford lead in yardage and yards per game. Josh McCown was still the league's highest-rated passer. Defensively, Hartford had given up the fewest rushing and passing yards per game. Wherein like the problems?
Defense: One thing that sticks out is--again, as of week five--Hartford's defense has never failed to give up points in the red zone. Of sixteen trips past the twenty-yard line, Colonials' opponents have scored nine touchdowns and six field goals. The team apparently know what it's doing between the 20's, but struggles when the field gets short. Compounding matters is the low number of turnovers that the team has forced; only two interceptions and three fumbles. And n that span the Colonial's pass rush has generate only four sacks. Overall, this paints a picture of a defense that is solid across the board, but with little to no ability to deliver the knockout punch. It seems that offenses have realized this and are capitalizing on it.
Take a look at the Las Vegas game this past Saturday as proof. Hartford faced a young, unproven quarterback in Drew Willy. Willy carved up the Colonials' secondary on short and intermediate routes all day. Defensive backs were playing far off of their receivers, leaving the Locos offense with modest gains every time Willy dropped back to pass. The run defense on Saturday was hit-or-miss, with DeDe Dorsey (can we just call him "3D?") alternately being stuffed in the backfield and breaking long gains.
Offense: Offensive lineman are a tough breed to find; there are only so many 6'5, 300 pound athletes out there. In a sport where that talent is tough to find, sadly, the Colonials have had to make due with a group of questionable talent. Pushing the issue is the simple fact that--and by no means is this peculiar to the Colonials--the line has had very little time to gel.
You'd be crazy to argue that the team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense. Lorenzo Booker makes opposing defenses look foolish and has more burst than the Fourth of July. Patrick Carter is a good deep threat, and Markee White has decent hands. McCown is a very accurate passer, but he has a fatal flaw which, unfortunately, is exacerbated by a porous line. That problem is that McCown will throw the ball into traffic before he'll throw it away. His receivers aren't getting enough time to get open before the ball comes out. This is as much on our star QB as it is on the line. It's a bad habit too easily exploited by a weak front five, and defenses have exploited it.
I would also think that by now the Ryan Perriloux experiment should be over. Too often, Perrilloux is brought in only for handoffs. it may have worked (or at least not been a hindrance) for the first two games this season, when teams didn't know what to expect from the rotation, but it has become stale and predictable.
Special Teams: Little to say here. I still have faith in Mehlhaff despite the botched extra point, and the field goal this past Saturday was problematic. We need better returners than Steptoe and Lawson, who have seven yards per punt return and 18.1 per kick return, respectively.
So am I being a pessimist by saying that the season is over? I'd argue that I'm being a realist. A 1-4 team is about as likely to win the UFL championship as a 2-8 team is to win the Superbowl. In any case, my spirits are still high. I've always loved rooting for the underdog.
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